Tony Abbott has stated he and Julie Bishop are united against the spill motion. Courtesy: Sky News
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott. Source: News Corp Australia
TONY Abbott can't win next week, even if no one appears to contest the leadership against him.
He will be slammed by criticism from his own side which he will find difficult to rebut, and it is hard for a leader to survive that ordeal in the medium term.
It is amounting to a confidence vote he can't expect to win cleanly. Mr Abbott's own colleagues are about to cause more damage to his authority in one day than Labor has managed over 16 months.
And that authority already is disintegrating rapidly. Informed Liberals today scoffed at the Prime Minister's suggestion he had a joint leadership ticket with his deputy, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop.
Mr Abbott says Ms Bishop will stand against the spill motion. Source: News Corp Australia
Ms Bishop and Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull will strike for the leadership if the opportunity appears. Mr Abbott, despite a parade of supportive ministers, is looking lonely.
Mr Abbott argued today his job should not be put on the line because Labor did that with two Prime Ministers and it led to instability and election defeat.
But this isn't comparable to the attacks which removed Kevin Rudd and Julie Bishop. They were palace coups. This is a peasants' revolt.
The detonator was this brief statement lodged with Liberal Whip Philip Ruddock this afternoon: "That the Liberal Party Room resolve, via secret ballot, that the senior positions of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal Party be declared vacant."
That was the motion from West Australian MP Luke Simpkins, seconded by another West Australian Don Randall, following a public attack on the PM from a third West Australian Dennis Jensen.
All three represent a very conservative flank of the Liberal Party. The gang from out of the West rode into town today and demanded a Liberal leadership shootout. But they forgot bring something: a gun contender.
Julie Bishop has been talked about as a leadership contender. Source: News Corp Australia
If it is to be High Noon for the Prime Minister there has to be someone else, a challenger, and that straight shooter simply hasn't turned up. Not yet.
That means it will be a weekend of confusion for many voters, as well as some distress for many of the 102 MPs who will on Tuesday decide whether Mr Abbott stays or rides into the political sunset.
Most probably the Liberal MPs will keep him as leader, but only after they are forced into a confrontation which can do nothing but further harm the standing of the Prime Minister, and the government.
The first debate Tuesday will be over the spill motion, and then possibly a ballot on the leadership. Both steps would be wretched for the PM.
He is expected to grimly retain his job, but it will no longer be the same Prime Minister who became a Liberal hero by running rampant over Labor in the 2013 election.
Malcolm Turnbull in Tuggerah yesterday. Source: News Corp Australia
And watching this all, bemused if not totally bewildered, will be voters. Understandably some will struggle to sort out the chaos. Nothing is clean cut.
And it happened suddenly, despite the week-long and painful prelude for the Liberals. It was an explosion of bitterness that brought on the showdown.
Prime Minister Abbott said he and Foreign Minister Bishop — another West Australian — will fight the attempt to put the Liberal leadership to a ballot.
Social Services Minister Scott Morrison has said he won't stand should a ballot be called, which left Communication Minister Turnbull to make his position clear. Mr Turnbull and Ms Bishop are expected to be bound by cabinet solidarity to vote against the spill motion.
But should the motion succeed, they might decide previous bets were off.
As said yet another West Australia Liberal and Abbott backer, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann: "The last week hasn't been a good week."
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