Pro-democracy protesters throng the streets of Hong Kong as China begins National Day celebrations, showing little sign of flagging momentum in their campaign. Rough Cut (no reporter narration)
Chinese President Xi Jinping gives a toast during Golden Week celebrations. Source: Getty Images
IT'S shaping up to be a great political dilemma for China.
How did student protests — started five days ago by a skinny 17-year-old with a mobile phone — morph into one of the greatest mass demonstration the megacity has ever seen?
After deploying riot police, tear gas and branding the protests "illegal" earlier this week, Beijing's leaders are mulling over how to control the tens of thousands of people that have blocked streets and closed public transport — demanding the right to free and fair elections in 2017.
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To make things worse, the city is paralysed during Golden Week, the busiest time of the year for mainland Chinese to travel to Hong Kong to shop while almost everyone is on holiday.
So how does a one-party state obsessed with control and secrecy deal with very public protests that have captured the world's attention?
Pro-democracy protesters hold up their mobile phones after heavy rain in Hong Kong on September 30, 2014. Source: AFP
Police in a cloud of teargas. Pic: AFP. Source: AFP
Monash University's emeritus professor of Asian languages and studies Bruce Jacobs said there's a range of possibilities for how the situation could play out, with a Tiananmen Square style massacre certainly not beyond the realms of possibility.
"What I would like and what I fear are different things. I'm afraid the Chinese will use a very hard line response. It could involve a lot of arrests or killings and it would be a disaster for Hong Kong."
"On the other hand if the Chinese back away and agree with commitments for more open elections, for more franchise [for people in Hong Kong], then things might be solved more peacefully."
He said the main difference between Hong Kong's current situation and the 1989 massacre — where the government ordered a brutal crackdown on thousands of pro-democracy protesters — is that Hong Kong is run as a special administrative district, rather than under direct control of Beijing.
"For the military forces to be called out would be a bigger step than it was in Beijing but it could happen. It could definitely happen. That's one of the things that I would personally fear … Hopefully it won't come to that but it could."
Protestors sleep out on the streets. Source: Getty Images
Beijing has slammed the protests as 'illegal' Pic: AFP. Source: AFP
So far, protesters have ignored calls from Hong Kong's chief executive Leung Chun-ying to go home and the atmosphere has swung from violent to festive with people singing and playing Cantonese pop in the streets.
Student leader Joshua Wong, who was detained by police but released, said Hong Kong's leader was the "only one" who could end the protest and they would hold out "for the bargaining chip with Beijing."
Human rights monitor Law Yuk Kai described the past few days as "the best and the worst that I've seen."
"The younger generation has a very critical mind which is reflected in these protests. Unlike the previous generation who were mostly refugees, the youth are really Hong Kongers," he said.
The city has come to a standstill. Source: AFP
Thousands raise their mobile phones. Source: Supplied
17 year-old student protest leader Joshua Wong speaks to fellow students on the street outside the Hong Kong Government Complex on October 1. Pic Getty. Source: Getty Images
Overnight, Britain's deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg summoned China's ambassador to express "dismay and alarm" about Beijing's plans to pre-approve pro-Beijing candidates in the upcoming election. US Secretary of State John Kerry is also set to meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss the growing movement.
However Prof Jacobs said the arrogance of China's leadership means it's unlikely to give much credence to what other countries say about what they see as their internal affairs.
"The Chinese leadership today and Xi Jinping is quite arrogant and it is over confident and it's over confident of its own strength and directions and this could lead to all sorts of miscalculations, not only domestically but overseas," he said.
"They lack a free press so they don't have any feedback, if people oppose a regime they're often imprisoned. There's no feedback mechanisms so this further enhances their arrogance."
It's occured during Golden Week - a major annual holiday where Chinese travel to Hong Kong. Source: AFP
Murdoch University's Asia research centre director Professor Kevin Hewison said the timing during Golden Week means the Chinese government's response is particularly significant as plenty of mainland Chinese will visit Hong Kong and see the protests first hand.
"What they're seeing is eye opening for them, and if people are taking back this kind of information to other cities in China. Some people might react against it … but even so there's this notion that you can try to defy the Chinese government.
He said while the government's natural inclination has been to crack down, they are likely rethinking this approach in light of the reaction this week.
"The Chinese government worries about everyone on it's edge … They worry this could get out of control. They've looked at the Arab spring, what's happening in other places and it's worried them."
A protestor covers himself in gladwrap to avoid tear gas. Source: Supplied
But not everyone agrees it will end badly. Earlier this week the Lowy Institute's director of East Asia program Dr Merriden Varrall wrote there's unlikely to be another Tiananmen Square type event as China is not the same place it was in 1989.
"Xi Jinping and the current Chinese leadership will be all too aware of the damage Tiananmen caused to China's international status, and, more importantly, the implications for China's domestic development," she wrote.
"Given the current circumstances of the Chinese economy, and China's growing role in international affairs, I believe that the Communist Party is very unlikely to choose to use more violence on these protesters in Hong Kong to the extent of that used in Tiananmen."
What do you think will happen with the protests in Hong Kong? Continue the conversation on Twitter @Victoria_Craw | @NewscomauHQ
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