Megablizzard slams Aussie ski areas

Snow has started to fall in the alpine areas ahead of what is tipped to be the start of a huge snow dump

This scene from Falls Creek in Victoria is what everyone hopes they see tomorrow. Except, of course, for those motorists who forgot to bring a snow shovel. Source: News Limited

IT'S here. The megablizzard. Snowpocalypse now. This baby has been on the weather charts all week and it's howling its way through the Australian Alps as you read this.

Experienced weather watchers are calling it the storm of the century. They're saying it could snow on and off, but mostly on, for the next 10 days. The first flakes are already falling as you read this. The megablizzard has arrived.

The official Australian ski season started two weeks ago but since then, there's been a desperately thin snow base with only a lift or two turning at the NSW resorts of Perisher and Thredbo. Victorian resorts, which are a little lower than their NSW counterparts, have had nothing but grass.

A very foggy Falls Creek in Victoria this morning just as the megablizzard is about to strike. Pic: ski.com.au. Source: NewsComAu

The same spot as the above pic an hour or so later, as the megablizard descends. Pic: ski.com.au. Source: NewsComAu

It's still coming down. Wait till tomorrow. Pic: ski.com.au Source: NewsComAu

But all that's changing today. By this time next week, we could be looking at virtually all lifts spinning at resorts on both sides of the Murray, with a metre or more of cover. Just in time for the school holidays too, the two week window which is vital for our ski industry bottom line.

Here's the Excelerator run at Perisher this morning, pre megablizzard. Pic: ski.com.au. Source: NewsComAu

And the lunchtime image. Pic: ski.com.au. Source: NewsComAu

And the late Monday afternoon image. Can't wait for tomorrow's pic! Pic: ski.com.au. Source: NewsComAu

Snow in Australia has been generally declining in recent years. Here's a graph that proves it.

Obviously the projection into the future cannot be relied upon. But the line of decline from the 1950s to the present day is very accurate. The blue bars represent the peak depth at Spencer's Creek. And for those asking why the measurements don't start before the 1950s, it's because there was no Snowy Hydro scheme then, so nobody bothered. Source: NewsComAu

The graph shows measurements from Spencer's Creek, halfway between Perisher and Thredbo. The readings are taken weekly by electricity generation company Snowy Hydro to predict water inflows to dams, and are therefore unaffected by resort spin doctors.

Snowfall decline is not just a result of warmer temperatures. Climatologists say that one of the clear effects of climate change is fewer snow-bearing systems making their way from the Southern Ocean to the Australian Alps.

The official Bureau of Meteorology charts for today and tomorrow. if you can't read a weather map, the black lines with 'shark fins' bring cold weather from the Southern Ocean. This means snow. Hooray. Source: NewsComAu

Ever heard of the roaring forties? It's an old maritime term which refers to the band of low pressure systems in the 40s latitudes. During winter, these systems can push northwards and bring their cold, moist sub-polar air to southern Australia. In a good snow year, plenty of these systems push north. In a poor year, like the worst ever season of 2006, hardly any break through.

That's why the current weather charts have snow watchers in such a lather. It's not just the current cold front, marked by a line with what you might call black "shark fins" on the weather map. It's the fact that there's another front, and another due after that. The one next Saturday in particular looks like a doozy. And there's a chance of more snowy action well into next week on the long range charts.

It's going to get better than this. We promise. Source: NewsComAu

Here's what a user called "Snowblowa" said on the forums on leading snow industry website ski.com.au:

"Seriously when was the last time we were looking at a potential 100cm event to kick off the season properly with potential mega follow up?!!!!!!! We gotta savour this, it's gunna be awesome, we might be saying in five years "remember late June in 2014". Besides, we are so over due, last few years in General have been pretty average."

Others on the site have dug through the archives to compare the current weather charts to famous megablizzards of the past.

"Reminds me of a system we had in early August 2004. It didn't stop snowing for 10 days or something like that. Still has to happen, of course."

Compare this 2004 weather chart from today's charts pictured higher up. As you can see, they are nearly identical. This 2004 storm brought a metre or so of snow, hence the optimism for today's event. Woohoo. Source: NewsComAu

Indeed it does. But as mentioned, the megablizzard has already started, in a welcome throwback to the days when heavy snowfalls were more regular in Australia. We'll keep updating our images as the storm continues. Hopefully by tomorrow morning, we'll have some pics of what snow industry people like to call "snow porn". Ugly phrase, beautiful thing.

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